Iondrive (ASX:ION) has released an updated evaluation for its IONSolv rare earth recycling process, putting a US$243M post-tax NPV around a single proposed US module.
The model points to US$121.8M in annual revenue, US$62.1M in EBITDA and a 51% EBITDA margin, against development capital of just US$11.9M.
Those numbers are eye-catching.
But the real story is what still needs to be proven.
One module, big economics
The proposed 2,402tpa module is modelled to produce ~630tpa of rare earth oxides, including ~624tpa of payable neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium oxide.
The model also carries a 10-year operating life and a US$243M post-tax NPV.
For a relatively small development capital bill, the potential returns look strong on paper.
Table 1: One IONSolv™ module.
Feedstock is the key
The biggest swing factor is feed grade.
The base case assumes feedstock grading 30.66% REO, materially higher than the prior study.
That richer assumed feed is the main reason modelled payable oxide production has jumped from ~115tpa to ~624tpa.
Iondrive still needs to confirm that feedstock grade and availability can be secured at commercial scale.
That is now the central commercial test.
Recovery is promising, but not finished
Single-pass leach recoveries have already been independently validated at 96.5% for neodymium oxide, 96.5–97.3% for praseodymium oxide and 93.5–93.6% for dysprosium oxide.
The economic model uses lower overall flowsheet recoveries of around 89%, but those full-system recoveries still need to be demonstrated through integrated testwork to final product.
So the process has shown technical promise.
Now the full flowsheet needs to prove it can repeat that performance commercially.
Oklahoma is the next step
Iondrive is targeting its first commercial module in the United States, with the strategy centred on recovering rare earths from end-of-life permanent magnets.
The company will now move through front-end engineering, commercial-scale feedstock qualification, site selection, permitting, supply, offtake and funding work.
The economics look strong. The capital looks light. Now Iondrive has to prove the feedstock and turn the model into a project.
